Blake Ellis vs Garrett Johns — Newport Qualifying Semi-final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
AUSPR
Blake Ellis
#477ATP
1416ELO
1408Grass ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
Garrett Johns
USA12
Garrett Johns
#390ATP
1336ELO
1368Grass ELO
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLWW
Ellis B.
4-6 3-6
Johns G.
Ellis B.
430
Johns G.
662

Garrett Johns defeated Blake Ellis in the semifinals of the Newport tournament, winning 6-4, 6-3 on the grass courts. Johns hit 11 aces to Ellis's 1 and converted 21% of his break points, securing three service breaks to Ellis's zero. Johns also had a higher first-serve win percentage, at 72% to Ellis's 64%.

Key context

  • Match story: Garrett Johns closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Ellis B.Johns G.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.9
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.7
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Ellis B.Johns G.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
41
36
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
66
Break points won·Even
3
3
Deciding sets·Clear edge
78
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Ellis B.81%
Johns G.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Ellis B. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ellis B.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Johns G.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.5+40 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Grass Elo 1368
6.0Overall Elo 1416
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1336
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.0Hard → Grass
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Ellis B.Johns G.
Freshness·
—
57

Johns G.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 79%

Draw