Gustavo Heide vs Marco Cecchinato — Milan Semi-final
Heide G.
Gustavo Heide faces Marco Cecchinato in the Milan semi-final on clay. Gustavo Heide holds the paper edge — ranked #141, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Heide G. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Gustavo Heide comes in with 2 days of rest and 122 games in 14d, vs Marco Cecchinato's 1 and 70.
- Last match: Marco Cecchinato advanced when Pierluigi Basile retired.
- Last match: Gustavo Heide won all two sets in tiebreaks against Enrico Dalla Valle.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHeide G.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Cecchinato M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.