Jack Kennedy vs Yosuke WatanukiCary Quarter-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#392ATP
1581ELO
1411Hard ELO
18 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 1st on
#416ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWLLL
Kennedy J.
1-6 4-6
Watanuki Y.
Kennedy J.
140
Watanuki Y.
662

Yosuke Watanuki advanced to the semifinals of the Cary quarterfinals by defeating Jack Kennedy 6-1, 6-4. Watanuki hit 11 aces to Kennedy's 3 and converted 80% of his break points, compared to Kennedy's 50%. Watanuki won 79% of his first-serve points, while Kennedy won 56%, and Watanuki broke Kennedy's serve 4 times to Kennedy's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
52%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
38%
Break points saved·Even
49%
48%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
6.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Kennedy J.43%
Watanuki Y.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1410
Surface ELO
6.6+126 Hard Elo edge
5.4Overall Elo 1581
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1552
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.54 of last 8 on hard
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw