Tung Lin Wu vs Bernard Tomic — Cary Round of 32

Cary · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

TPE

Tung Lin Wu

#346ATP

1406ELO

1376Hard ELO

28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLLLLWLWWW

—

Sets

Monday, 29 June 2026 · 14:00

hard

AUS

Bernard Tomic

#189ATP

1485ELO

1447Hard ELO

$117kYTD

$6.8MCAREER

33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLLWLLLWL

Wu T.

Tomic B.

Tung Lin Wu faces Bernard Tomic in the Cary round of 32 on hard. Bernard Tomic holds the paper edge — ranked #189, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC

Wu T.42%

Tomic B.58%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Tomic B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: Bernard Tomic has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 53 vs Tung Lin Wu's 10).
Surface form: Tung Lin Wu 0 of 5, Bernard Tomic 1 of 5 on hard recently — Bernard Tomic the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Bernard Tomic carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Wu T.

4.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Tomic B.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.1Hard Elo 1376

Surface ELO

5.9+71 Hard Elo edge

4.0Overall Elo 1406

ELO gap

6.0Overall Elo 1485

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

2.33 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

3.74 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 6

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Surface transition

7.0Grass → Hard

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Wu T.Cooling

Tomic B.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season

Wu T.Tomic B.

1st serve in·Slight edge

70%

63%

1st serve points won·Even

70%

68%

2nd serve points won·Even

54%

51%

Service points won·Even

65%

62%

Return points won·Even

40%

36%

Break points saved·Even

65%

Aces / match·Slight edge

3.3

4.1

Double faults / match·Even

1.5

1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Wu T.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Tomic B.

Tomic B.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Wu T.

Serve advantage — Wu T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Wu T.Tomic B.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Wu T.Tomic B.

Freshness·

—

Tomic B.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.