Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaQuito Round of 32

Quito · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
1446ELO
1396Clay ELO
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWWWWLW
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
clay
#409ATP
1400ELO
1391Clay ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWLWL
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
vs
Pucinelli De Almeida M.

Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez faces Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Quito round of 32 on clay. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.57%
Pucinelli De Almeida M.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+5 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Clay Elo 1391
5.6Overall Elo 1446
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1400
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
6.57 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

10 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·
60%
1st serve points won·
60%
2nd serve points won·
49%
Service points won·
55%
Return points won·
50%
Break points saved·
52%
Aces / match·
1.7
Double faults / match·
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
95
60

Rodriguez Rodriguez J.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.