Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu — Targu Mures Semi-final

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Semi-final

IND

#285ATP

1495ELO

1489Clay ELO

28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 13:30

clay

COURT 1 · 2nd on

ROUALT

#287ATP

1500ELO

1463Clay ELO

25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Nagal S.

vs

Cretu C.

Sumit Nagal faces Cezar Cretu in the Targu Mures semi-final on clay. Sumit Nagal holds the paper edge — ranked #285, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Nagal S.46%

Cretu C.54%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Sumit Nagal comes in with 1 days of rest and 77 games in 14d, vs Cezar Cretu's 1 and 36.
Last match: Sumit Nagal dropped the opening set before beating Duje Ajdukovic 3–6 7–5 6–4.
Surface form: Sumit Nagal 5 of 9, Cezar Cretu 6 of 9 on clay recently — Cezar Cretu the sharper of late.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.3+26 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.7Clay Elo 1463

4.9Overall Elo 1495

ELO gap

5.1Overall Elo 1500

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.65 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

7.07 of last 10 on clay

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Cretu C.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season

Nagal S.Cretu C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

71%

65%

1st serve points won·Even

64%

64%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

52%

Service points won·Even

60%

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

40%

46%

Break points saved·Slight edge

61%

56%

Aces / match·Even

1.9

1.5

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.7

1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Nagal S.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Cretu C.

Cretu C.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Nagal S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Nagal S.Cretu C.

Clutch Rating·Even

31

35

Break points saved·Dominant

69

33

Break points won·Dominant

35

64

Deciding sets·Dominant

11

53

Tiebreaks·

84

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Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Nagal S.Cretu C.

Freshness·Clear edge

61

81

Nagal S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Cretu C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on COURT 1 · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

1Balshaw F. v Nedic A.12:00
2Nagal S. v Cretu C.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast

30°CPartly cloudy

Wind 5 km/hHumidity 40%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final

Rubio Fierros A.

Gueymard Wayenburg S.

Alcala Gurri M.[8]

6-36-7³6-7¹¹

Agamenone F.[4]

Guillen Meza A.[5]

Roca Batalla O.

Gueymard Wayenburg S.

Alcala Gurri M.[8]

Agamenone F.[4]

Guillen Meza A.[5]

Alcala Gurri M.[8]

Balshaw F.

Nedic A.

Nagal S.

Cretu C.

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