Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova — Piracicaba Round of 16

Piracicaba · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
ARG
Valerio Aboian
#428ATP
1348ELO
1339Clay ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 26 June 2026 ·
clay
Hernan Casanova
ARG
Hernan Casanova
#330ATP
1393ELO
1381Clay ELO
32 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWW
Aboian V.
6-2 4-6 6-4
Casanova H.
Aboian V.
6462
Casanova H.
2641

Valerio Aboian defeated Hernan Casanova 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the Piracicaba tournament on clay. Aboian hit 4 aces and 7 double faults, winning 61% of first-serve points and converting 38% of break points. He won 6 service breaks to Casanova's 4.

Key context

  • Match story: Valerio Aboian closed it out in three sets, 6–2 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-03-30M15 Villa Maria 1R32clayHernan Casanova6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
Aboian V.Casanova H.
1st serve in·Clear edge
59%
77%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
54%
Service points won·Even
58%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.9
0.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
0.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Aboian V.Casanova H.
Clutch Rating·Even
12
8
Break points saved·Clear edge
39
24
Break points won·Clear edge
37
22
Deciding sets·Clear edge
18
32
Tiebreaks·
—
34

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Aboian V.37%
Casanova H.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Casanova H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Aboian V.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Casanova H.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0+1 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Clay Elo 1527
5.1Overall Elo 1521
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1515
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
6.46 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Aboian V.Casanova H.
Freshness·
75
—

Aboian V.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
17°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw