Xiyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina — Bad Homburg Quarter-final
Wang X.
Xiyu Wang faces Elina Svitolina in the Bad Homburg quarter-final on grass. Elina Svitolina is the paper favourite — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16 — but Xiyu Wang rides a 3-match win streak. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Svitolina E. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Xiyu Wang comes in with 1 days of rest and 116 games in 14d, vs Elina Svitolina's 4 and 48.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Elina Svitolina has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 89 vs 60).
- Last match: Elina Svitolina dropped the opening set before beating Liudmila Samsonova 3–6 6–3 6–2.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadWang X.: 1 day rest · 7 matches, 116 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-01 | Auckland | SF | hard | Elina Svitolina | 2-6 6-4 6-3 |