Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
LAT6
Darja Semenistaja
#106WTA
1654ELO
1548Grass ELO
23 yrs · 169 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Anastasia Gasanova
RUS
Anastasia Gasanova
#190WTA
1491ELO
1432Grass ELO
27 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWLL
Semenistaja D.
4-6 2-6
Gasanova A.
Semenistaja D.
420
Gasanova A.
662

Anastasia Gasanova won the Wimbledon final, defeating Darja Semenistaja 6-4, 6-2. Gasanova hit one ace and two double faults, while Semenistaja had no aces and one double fault. Gasanova converted 67% of her break points and won six service breaks to Semenistaja's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Semenistaja D.Gasanova A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
44%
Service points won·Even
54%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
45%
51%
Aces / match·Even
1.5
0.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.0
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Semenistaja D.Gasanova A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
76
36
Break points saved·Dominant
52
21
Break points won·Even
96
100
Deciding sets·Clear edge
94
78
Tiebreaks·Dominant
98
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Semenistaja D.79%
Gasanova A.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Semenistaja D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Semenistaja D.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Gasanova A.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0+1 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Grass Elo 1503
5.6Overall Elo 1620
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1569
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.15 of last 9 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Semenistaja D.Gasanova A.
Freshness·
97
—

Semenistaja D.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw