Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaMallorca Quarter-final

Mallorca · ATP · Quarter-final
#137ATP
1744ELO
1662Grass ELO
$329kYTD
$32MCAREER
35 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
#25ATP
1893ELO
1782Grass ELO
$1.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWL
Dimitrov G.
3-6 3-6
Davidovich Fokina A.
Dimitrov G.
330
Davidovich Fokina A.
662

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the Mallorca grass tournament. Davidovich Fokina converted 50% of his break points and won 76% of his first-serve points, while Dimitrov converted 17% of his break points and won 63% of his first-serve points. Davidovich Fokina had 6 aces and 2 double faults, Dimitrov had 6 aces and 6 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersSFclayAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-4 6-7 6-3
2021-05-10Rome MastersR64clayAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-4 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
69%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
56%
Service points won·Even
65%
66%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.6
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
85
89
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Dominant
64
94
Deciding sets·Slight edge
97
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Dimitrov G.33%
Davidovich Fokina A.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Davidovich Fokina A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+71 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Grass Elo 1530
4.2Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1861
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.48 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Dimitrov G.: 21 days rest · Davidovich Fokina A.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
34°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 33%

Draw