Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel CerundoloEastbourne Quarter-final

Eastbourne · ATP · Quarter-final
#109ATP
1745ELO
1595Grass ELO
$217kYTD
$332kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
#52ATP
1790ELO
1570Grass ELO
$779kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLWW
Samuel T.
6-3 6-4
Cerundolo J.
Samuel T.
662
Cerundolo J.
340

Toby Samuel defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of the Eastbourne tournament on grass. Samuel converted 50% of his break points and won 78% of his first-serve points, while Cerundolo did not convert any break points. Samuel had 3 aces and 0 double faults, compared to Cerundolo's 4 aces and 4 double faults.

Key context

  • Match story: Toby Samuel closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
65%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
5.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Samuel T.44%
Cerundolo J.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.5+42 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Grass Elo 1466
3.0Overall Elo 1655
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1816
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.57 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
2.92 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
81

Samuel T.: 8 days rest · 5 matches (14d) · Cerundolo J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw