Sumit Nagal vs Duje AjdukovicTargu Mures Quarter-final

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#235ATP
1543ELO
1538Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
clay
#302ATP
1480ELO
1462Clay ELO
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLLLW
Nagal S.
3-6 7-5 6-4
Ajdukovic D.
Nagal S.
3762
Ajdukovic D.
6541

Sumit Nagal defeated Duje Ajdukovic in the quarterfinals of the Targu Mures clay tournament. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 7-5, 6-4 in favor of Nagal. Nagal converted 21% of break points and won 3 service breaks, while Ajdukovic converted 50% of break points and won 4 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
45%
Service points won·Even
60%
59%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
63%
49%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.1
3.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
12
32
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
59
Break points won·Dominant
3
32
Deciding sets·Dominant
3
60
Tiebreaks·Dominant
78
21

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Nagal S.55%
Ajdukovic D.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.1+12 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Clay Elo 1567
5.3Overall Elo 1574
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1553
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
4.64 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
93

Nagal S.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Ajdukovic D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 29%

Draw