Eero Vasa vs Ognjen MilicPlovdiv Round of 16

Plovdiv · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#463ATP
1355ELO
1334Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLWWWW
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
clay
#370ATP
1414ELO
1428Clay ELO
19 yrs
Last 10
WLLLWWLWWL
Vasa E.
vs
Milic O.

Eero Vasa faces Ognjen Milic in the Plovdiv round of 16 on clay. Ognjen Milic holds the paper edge — ranked #370, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC
Vasa E.38%
Milic O.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Milic O. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
3.8Clay Elo 1334
Surface ELO
6.2+94 Clay Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1354
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1414
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Vasa E.Cooling
Milic O.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
63%
51%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
64%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.8
6.5
Double faults / match·Even
3.5
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vasa E.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Milic O.

Milic O.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Vasa E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
75

Milic O.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 70%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.