Marko Topo vs Martin KrumichTargu Mures Round of 16

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#364ATP
1459ELO
1400Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWWLLL
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
clay
#280ATP
1451ELO
1411Clay ELO
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWLLLW
Topo M.
vs
Krumich M.

Marko Topo faces Martin Krumich in the Targu Mures round of 16 on clay. Martin Krumich holds the paper edge — ranked #280. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC
Topo M.45%
Krumich M.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1400
Surface ELO
5.1+11 Clay Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1459
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1451
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
3.43 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Topo M.Stable
Krumich M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

11 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.2
4.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Topo M.serving61% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Krumich M.

Krumich M.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Topo M.

Serve advantage — Krumich M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
27
24
Break points saved·Clear edge
87
70
Break points won·Dominant
4
53
Deciding sets·Even
7
9
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
22

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
92
65

Topo M.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Krumich M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.