Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski — Eastbourne Round of 16
USA
GBR
Fritz T.
Taylor Fritz faces Jan Choinski in the Eastbourne round of 16 on grass. Taylor Fritz is the paper favourite — ranked #7, a roughly 390-point grass Elo advantage — but Jan Choinski rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Fritz T. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Taylor Fritz comes in with 1 days of rest and 269 games in 14d, vs Jan Choinski's 1 and 176.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Taylor Fritz has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 54).
- Last match: Jan Choinski dropped the opening set before beating Alexei Popyrin 1–6 6–2 6–2.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadFritz T.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 147 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 138 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.