Karolina Muchova vs Irina Camelia Begu

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 16

CZE

Karolina Muchova

#11WTA

2053ELO

1773Grass ELO

$1.8MYTD

$12MCAREER

29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWLLWWW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 24 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

ROU

Irina Camelia Begu

#211WTA

1759ELO

1605Grass ELO

35 yrs · 181 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLWLLWWW

Muchova K.

Begu I.

Karolina Muchova faces Irina Camelia Begu in the Bad Homburg round of 16 on grass. Karolina Muchova is the paper favourite — ranked #11, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Irina Camelia Begu rides a 3-match win streak. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC

Muchova K.89%

Begu I.11%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Muchova K. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: Karolina Muchova has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 92 vs Irina Camelia Begu's 66).
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 2–2; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Palermo 2024.
Fatigue load: Irina Camelia Begu carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Muchova K.

7.0

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Begu I.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.1+168 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.9Grass Elo 1605

8.2Overall Elo 2053

ELO gap

1.8Overall Elo 1759

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

4.14 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.66 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Muchova K.Sliding

Begu I.Not enough recent matches

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season

Muchova K.Begu I.

1st serve in·Even

66%

69%

1st serve points won·Dominant

69%

42%

2nd serve points won·Clear edge

49%

32%

Service points won·Clear edge

62%

39%

Return points won·Even

43%

40%

Break points saved·Clear edge

60%

42%

Aces / match·Slight edge

3.2

2.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.1

1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Muchova K.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Begu I.

Begu I.serving61% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve advantage — Muchova K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Muchova K.Begu I.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Clear edge

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Muchova K.Begu I.

Freshness·Slight edge

Muchova K.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Begu I.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°CClear

Wind 5 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

2–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-07-15	Palermo	SF	clay	Karolina Muchova	6-1 6-1
2023-05-29	Roland Garros	R32	clay	Karolina Muchova	6-3 6-2
2023-04-24	Madrid	R64	clay	Irina Camelia Begu	6-4 7-5
2019-05-27	Roland Garros	R64	clay	Irina Camelia Begu	1-6 6-3 6-4