Eero Vasa vs Manas DhamnePlovdiv Round of 32

Plovdiv · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#462ATP
1355ELO
1334Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLWWWWW
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
clay
#378ATP
1490ELO
1448Clay ELO
18 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLWWLLW
Vasa E.
vs
Dhamne M.

Eero Vasa faces Manas Dhamne in the Plovdiv round of 32 on clay. Manas Dhamne is the paper favourite — ranked #378, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage — but Eero Vasa arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 10 on clay to Manas Dhamne's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Vasa E.22%
Dhamne M.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Dhamne M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1334
Surface ELO
6.4+114 Clay Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1354
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1490
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.14 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.33 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
9.0Last match 1h20m
Prev. match
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Vasa E.Cooling
Dhamne M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
64%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
1.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vasa E.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Dhamne M.

Dhamne M.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Vasa E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
88

Vasa E.: 20 days rest · Dhamne M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
27°CMainly clear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.