Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Juan EstevezPiracicaba Round of 32

Piracicaba · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#598ATP
1243ELO
1255Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10
LWLLWWLWWW
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
clay
#386ATP
1157ELO
1149Clay ELO
20 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWLLL
Aguilar Cardozo J.
vs
Estevez J.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo faces Juan Estevez in the Piracicaba round of 32 on clay. Juan Estevez holds the paper edge — ranked #386. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTC
Aguilar Cardozo J.67%
Estevez J.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Aguilar Cardozo J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+106 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1148
6.1Overall Elo 1243
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1157
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
4.75 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

12 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Even
1.0
1.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Aguilar Cardozo J.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Estevez J.

Estevez J.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Aguilar Cardozo J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
55

Aguilar Cardozo J.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Estevez J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.