Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider — Bad Homburg Round of 32

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 32

DEN

Clara Tauson

#23WTA

1805ELO

1670Grass ELO

$741kYTD

$5.2MCAREER

23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

RUS

Diana Shnaider

#16WTA

1930ELO

1759Grass ELO

$1.8MYTD

$6.1MCAREER

22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLWWWWWLWL

Tauson C.

Shnaider D.

Clara Tauson faces Diana Shnaider in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Diana Shnaider holds the paper edge — ranked #16, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Tauson C.32%

Shnaider D.68%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shnaider D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Clara Tauson grades 60 on serve, Diana Shnaider 37 on return.
Head-to-head: Diana Shnaider leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at US Open 2024.
Stage: Clara Tauson defends last year's round of 16; Diana Shnaider defends last year's round of 32.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tauson C.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Shnaider D.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.9Grass Elo 1670

Surface ELO

6.1+89 Grass Elo edge

3.8Overall Elo 1805

ELO gap

6.2Overall Elo 1930

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

4.55 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

3.54 of last 10 on grass

0.0Lost last 5

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

Heat performance

8.5Excels in hot weather

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tauson C.Stable

Shnaider D.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Tauson C.Shnaider D.

1st serve in·Even

63%

65%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

72%

66%

2nd serve points won·Even

40%

44%

Service points won·Even

60%

58%

Return points won·Even

42%

43%

Break points saved·Slight edge

57%

62%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.1

1.3

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.1

4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Tauson C.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Shnaider D.

Shnaider D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Tauson C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Tauson C.Shnaider D.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

Tauson C.Shnaider D.

Serve

—

Return

—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Tauson C.Shnaider D.

Freshness·Even

Tauson C.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Shnaider D.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°COvercast

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 62%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-08-26	US Open	R64	hard	Diana Shnaider	6-4 6-4