Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor TownsendBad Homburg Qualifying Final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Qualifying Final
#105WTA
1773ELO
1680Grass ELO
28 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLWLWL
Sets
Sunday, 21 June 2026 ·
grass
#81WTA
1836ELO
1628Grass ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLLWWW
Ruse E.
vs
Townsend T.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC
Ruse E.45%
Townsend T.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.6+52 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Grass Elo 1628
4.9Overall Elo 1772
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1836
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.97 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Ruse E.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
52%
67%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
5.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.0
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Ruse E.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Townsend T.

Townsend T.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Ruse E.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
66
75
Break points saved·Clear edge
72
94
Break points won·Dominant
98
55
Deciding sets·Slight edge
96
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
5
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
91

Ruse E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CMainly clear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.