Iva Jovic vs Xiyu Wang — Bad Homburg Round of 32

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 32

USA

Iva Jovic

#17WTA

1879ELO

1753Grass ELO

$1.3MYTD

$2.4MCAREER

18 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWWLLW

—

Sets

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

CHN

Xiyu Wang

#101WTA

1764ELO

1579Grass ELO

25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WWWLLLWLWW

Jovic I.

Wang X.

Iva Jovic faces Xiyu Wang in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Iva Jovic is the paper favourite — ranked #17, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Xiyu Wang rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Jovic I.78%

Wang X.22%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jovic I. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Form trend: Iva Jovic's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Xiyu Wang's has cooled.
Freshness: Workload contrast: Iva Jovic 77 games in 14 days, Xiyu Wang 76.
Win streak: Xiyu Wang arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jovic I.

7.3

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Wang X.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

7.2+174 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.8Grass Elo 1579

5.9Overall Elo 1879

ELO gap

4.1Overall Elo 1764

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.68 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

3.44 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Jovic I.Rising

Wang X.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season

Jovic I.Wang X.

1st serve in·Clear edge

62%

76%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

66%

61%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

53%

Service points won·Even

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

45%

54%

Break points saved·Even

60%

63%

Aces / match·Clear edge

2.3

0.4

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.0

1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Jovic I.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Wang X.

Wang X.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Jovic I.

Serve advantage — Wang X.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Jovic I.Wang X.

Freshness·Slight edge

Jovic I.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d) · Wang X.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°COvercast

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 62%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.