Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech — Bad Homburg Round of 32

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 32

JPN

Naomi Osaka

#15WTA

1972ELO

1741Grass ELO

$1.0MYTD

$26MCAREER

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWWLWW

—

Sets

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

POL

Magdalena Frech

#45WTA

1738ELO

1574Grass ELO

$634kYTD

$4.8MCAREER

28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWLWLWLLL

Osaka N.

Frech M.

Naomi Osaka faces Magdalena Frech in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #15, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Osaka N.83%

Frech M.17%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Naomi Osaka comes in with 18 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Magdalena Frech's 3 and 76.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Naomi Osaka has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 91 vs 57).
Stage: Naomi Osaka defends last year's round of 16; Magdalena Frech defends last year's round of 32.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Osaka N.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Frech M.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.1+167 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.9Grass Elo 1574

7.8Overall Elo 1972

ELO gap

2.2Overall Elo 1738

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.64 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

2.12 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

Heat performance

8.5Excels in hot weather

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Osaka N.Stable

Frech M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

7 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Osaka N.Frech M.

1st serve in·Even

62%

1st serve points won·Even

70%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

44%

Service points won·Even

61%

58%

Return points won·Even

41%

43%

Break points saved·Slight edge

65%

58%

Aces / match·Dominant

6.4

3.4

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.3

2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Osaka N.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Frech M.

Frech M.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Osaka N.Frech M.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Clear edge

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Osaka N.Frech M.

Freshness·Dominant

100

Osaka N.: 18 days rest · Frech M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°COvercast

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 62%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.