Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone — Mallorca Qualifying Final

Mallorca · ATP · Qualifying Final

SVKQ

Alex Molcan

#101ATP

1761ELO

1625Grass ELO

$295kYTD

$2.7MCAREER

28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWWWWLWWW

2 — 1

Sets

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 12:05

grass

GRANDSTAND · 1st on

USA8

Murphy Cassone

#292ATP

1415ELO

1392Grass ELO

23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWLWLLLLL

Molcan A.

6-4 4-6 6-4

Cassone M.

Molcan A.

6462

Cassone M.

4641

Alex Molcan broke serve in the third set to take control and defeat Murphy Cassone 6-4 4-6 6-4 in the Mallorca qualifying final.

Key context

Pressure points: Alex Molcan converted 5 of 12 break points; Murphy Cassone converted 4 of 8 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Molcan A.

Cassone M.

Break points won

5/12

4/8

Break points saved

4/8

7/12

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Molcan A.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Cassone M.

Cassone M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Molcan A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Molcan A.Cassone M.

1st serve in·Even

64%

65%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

71%

2nd serve points won·Even

52%

51%

Service points won·Even

63%

64%

Return points won·Slight edge

41%

36%

Break points saved·Even

63%

60%

Aces / match·Clear edge

3.3

6.2

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.6

2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Molcan A.Cassone M.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:21 UTC

Molcan A.91%

Cassone M.9%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Molcan A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Molcan A.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Cassone M.

4.3

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.9+234 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.1Grass Elo 1392

9.3Overall Elo 1761

ELO gap

0.7Overall Elo 1415

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.45 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

5.26 of last 10 on grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.