Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Bad Homburg Round of 32
USA
Li A.
Ann Li faces Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Ekaterina Alexandrova holds the paper edge — ranked #19, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's quarter-final.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Alexandrova E. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Ekaterina Alexandrova leads the head-to-head 2–1; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Strasbourg 2026.
- Fatigue load: Ann Li carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Stage: Ekaterina Alexandrova defends last year's quarter-final.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadLi A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 61 games (7d) · Alexandrova E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Strasbourg | R16 | clay | Ann Li | 4-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-10-06 | Wuhan | R32 | hard | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 7-6(5) 6-2 |
| 2025-03-31 | Charleston | R32 | clay | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 6-3 6-0 |