Jurij Rodionov vs Henry SearleDublin Final

Dublin · CHALLENGER · Final
#152ATP
1589ELO
1511Grass ELO
$194kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
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Sets
Saturday, 20 June 2026 ·
grass
#354ATP
1357ELO
1355Grass ELO
20 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
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Rodionov J.
vs
Searle H.

Jurij Rodionov faces Henry Searle in the Dublin final on grass. Jurij Rodionov holds the paper edge — ranked #152, a roughly 160-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:21 UTC
Rodionov J.93%
Searle H.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rodionov J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+156 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Grass Elo 1355
7.9Overall Elo 1589
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1357
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
5.24 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.25 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.2
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rodionov J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Searle H.

Searle H.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rodionov J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
52

Rodionov J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Searle H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 103 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.