Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova — Nottingham Semi-final

Nottingham · WTA · Semi-final

CZE

Karolina Pliskova

#87WTA

1862ELO

1750Grass ELO

34 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLWWLWLW

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Sets

Saturday, 20 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

CZE

Marie Bouzkova

#27WTA

1835ELO

1666Grass ELO

$805kYTD

$7.2MCAREER

27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLWLWWLW

Pliskova K.

Bouzkova M.

Karolina Pliskova faces Marie Bouzkova in the Nottingham semi-final on grass. Karolina Pliskova holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC

Pliskova K.71%

Bouzkova M.29%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pliskova K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Karolina Pliskova 128 games in 14 days, Marie Bouzkova 75.
Last match: Marie Bouzkova handed Tatjana Maria a second-set bagel in a 7–5 6–0 win.
Last match: Karolina Pliskova edged Talia Gibson in two tight sets (7–5 6–4).

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Pliskova K.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Bouzkova M.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.1+84 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.9Grass Elo 1666

5.6Overall Elo 1862

ELO gap

4.4Overall Elo 1835

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

6.76 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.76 of last 10 on grass

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Pliskova K.Stable

Bouzkova M.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

12 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Pliskova K.Bouzkova M.

1st serve in·Even

65%

66%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

68%

62%

2nd serve points won·Even

45%

44%

Service points won·Even

60%

56%

Return points won·Even

41%

45%

Break points saved·Even

57%

55%

Aces / match·Dominant

4.8

1.6

Double faults / match·Clear edge

4.8

3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Pliskova K.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Bouzkova M.

Bouzkova M.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Pliskova K.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Pliskova K.Bouzkova M.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Pliskova K.Bouzkova M.

Freshness·Clear edge

Pliskova K.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 81 games (7d) · Bouzkova M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

21°CPartly cloudy

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

2–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2022-08-29	US Open	R64	hard	Karolina Pliskova	6-3 6-2
2022-04-28	Madrid	R64	clay	Marie Bouzkova	6-4 7-5
2018-12-31	Brisbane	R16	hard	Karolina Pliskova	7-5 6-2

View full head-to-head →

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final