Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu — Figueira Da Foz Semi-final
Charaeva A.
Alina Charaeva faces Ayla Aksu in the Figueira Da Foz semi-final on hard. Alina Charaeva holds the paper edge — ranked #128, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Charaeva A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alina Charaeva comes in with 2 days of rest and 78 games in 14d, vs Ayla Aksu's 4 and 16.
- Last match: Alina Charaeva dropped the opening set before beating Susan Bandecchi 5–7 6–2 7–5.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Alina Charaeva on a 4-match run, Ayla Aksu on 3.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadCharaeva A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 28 games (7d) · Aksu A.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.