Martyna Kubka vs Yeon Woo Ku — Figueira Da Foz Quarter-final

Figueira Da Foz · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

POL

Martyna Kubka

#230WTA

1562ELO

1529Hard ELO

25 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWLWWW

—

Sets

Friday, 19 June 2026 · 10:00

hard

KOR

Yeon Woo Ku

1475ELO

1459Hard ELO

23 yrs

Last 10

WWWWWWWLLL

Kubka M.

Ku Y.

Martyna Kubka faces Yeon Woo Ku in the Figueira Da Foz quarter-final on hard. Martyna Kubka is the paper favourite — a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Yeon Woo Ku arrives in form, winning all 6 of their last hard matches to Martyna Kubka's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC

Kubka M.71%

Ku Y.29%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kubka M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Martyna Kubka 13 games in 14 days, Yeon Woo Ku 41.
Last match: Martyna Kubka edged Alexandra Korneeva in three tight sets (7–6 5–7 6–4).
Win streak: Yeon Woo Ku arrives on a 7-match winning run.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Kubka M.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Ku Y.

6.8

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.9+70 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.1Hard Elo 1459

5.1Overall Elo 1562

ELO gap

4.9Overall Elo 1475

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

8.58 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

8.07 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

9.07-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kubka M.Rising

Ku Y.Surging

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season

Kubka M.Ku Y.

1st serve in·Even

69%

66%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

68%

59%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

51%

46%

Service points won·Slight edge

63%

54%

Return points won·Even

43%

47%

Break points saved·Slight edge

56%

50%

Aces / match·Clear edge

4.3

1.8

Double faults / match·Clear edge

1.6

2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Kubka M.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Ku Y.

Ku Y.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Kubka M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Kubka M.Ku Y.

Freshness·Clear edge

Kubka M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 13 games (7d) · Ku Y.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

19°CPartly cloudy

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.