Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala GurriRoyan Semi-final

Royan · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#290ATP
1622ELO
1600Clay ELO
20 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWWWW
Sets
Friday, 19 June 2026 ·
clay
#272ATP
1507ELO
1485Clay ELO
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWWWW
Feldbausch K.
vs
Alcala Gurri M.

Kilian Feldbausch faces Max Alcala Gurri in the Royan semi-final on clay. Max Alcala Gurri holds the paper edge — ranked #272. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC
Feldbausch K.70%
Alcala Gurri M.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Feldbausch K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+114 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1485
6.4Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1507
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
10.010 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.99 of last 10 on clay
10.013-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
73%
77%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
47%
Break points saved·Even
51%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.9
0.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Feldbausch K.serving49% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Alcala Gurri M.

Alcala Gurri M.serving51% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Feldbausch K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
80
74

Feldbausch K.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Alcala Gurri M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 70%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.