Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina — Poznan Quarter-final
Bueno G.
Gonzalo Bueno faces Dalibor Svrcina in the Poznan quarter-final on clay. Dalibor Svrcina holds the paper edge — ranked #110, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Svrcina D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Dalibor Svrcina dropped just 6 games past Norbert Gombos.
- Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
- Surface form: Both 4 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBueno G.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Svrcina D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.