Guido Ivan Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez — Asuncion 2 Round of 16

Asuncion 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
ARG
Guido Ivan Justo
#254ATP
1403ELO
1393Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLLLWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 17 June 2026 ·
clay
COL
Juan Sebastian Gomez
#581ATP
1238ELO
1228Clay ELO
34 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLWWWW
Justo G.
vs
Gomez J.

Guido Ivan Justo faces Juan Sebastian Gomez in the Asuncion 2 round of 16 on clay. Guido Ivan Justo is the paper favourite — ranked #254, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Sebastian Gomez arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Guido Ivan Justo's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Justo G.82%
Gomez J.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Justo G. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Justo G.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Gomez J.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.1+165 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Clay Elo 1228
7.1Overall Elo 1403
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1238
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Justo G.Stable
Gomez J.Not enough recent matches

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

44 vs 3 matches

Statistics

This season
Justo G.Gomez J.
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
61%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
51%
35%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
52%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
37%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
36%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.2
2.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 3). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Justo G.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Gomez J.

Gomez J.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Justo G.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Justo G.Gomez J.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
16
39
Break points saved·Clear edge
23
10
Break points won·Clear edge
42
58
Deciding sets·Dominant
19
89
Tiebreaks·
69
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Justo G.Gomez J.
Freshness·Slight edge
65
75

Justo G.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 96 games (7d) · Gomez J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.