Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor SvrcinaPoznan Round of 16

Poznan · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#365ATP
1477ELO
1462Clay ELO
35 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWLWLW
Sets
Wednesday, 17 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 3rd on
#107ATP
1657ELO
1583Clay ELO
$290kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWWLLW
Gombos N.
vs
Svrcina D.

Norbert Gombos faces Dalibor Svrcina in the Poznan round of 16 on clay. Dalibor Svrcina holds the paper edge — ranked #107, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Gombos N.18%
Svrcina D.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Svrcina D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Clay Elo 1462
Surface ELO
6.5+120 Clay Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1477
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1656
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.94 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
44%
Break points saved·Even
56%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
1.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gombos N.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Svrcina D.

Svrcina D.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Gombos N.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
41
35
Break points saved·Dominant
83
44
Break points won·Dominant
8
90
Deciding sets·Dominant
68
30
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
39
26

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
61
80

Gombos N.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Svrcina D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on COURT 1 · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 2Diaz Acosta F. v Barton H.
  2. 3Gombos N. v Svrcina D.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.