Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea — Nottingham Round of 16

Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

GBR

#144ATP

1486ELO

1493Grass ELO

$229kYTD

$1.5MCAREER

31 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

FRA

#137ATP

1614ELO

1507Grass ELO

$243kYTD

$484kCAREER

21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLWWWWL

Harris B.

vs

Gea A.

Billy Harris faces Arthur Gea in the Nottingham round of 16 on grass. Arthur Gea holds the paper edge — ranked #137.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC

Harris B.35%

Gea A.65%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gea A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Billy Harris comes in with 3 days of rest and 163 games in 14d, vs Arthur Gea's 3 and 56.
Last match: Arthur Gea dropped just 6 games past Anton Matusevich.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

4.8Grass Elo 1493

Surface ELO

5.2+14 Grass Elo edge

3.4Overall Elo 1486

ELO gap

6.6Overall Elo 1614

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

5.45 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Harris B.Stable

Gea A.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season

Harris B.Gea A.

1st serve in·Even

59%

59%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

75%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

52%

Service points won·Even

62%

65%

Return points won·Slight edge

34%

39%

Break points saved·Slight edge

58%

65%

Aces / match·Slight edge

4.8

5.5

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.0

3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Harris B.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Gea A.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Harris B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Harris B.Gea A.

Clutch Rating·Slight edge

45

38

Break points saved·Slight edge

91

81

Break points won·Clear edge

10

27

Deciding sets·Dominant

78

25

Tiebreaks·Dominant

25

83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Harris B.Gea A.

Freshness·Slight edge

70

76

Harris B.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d) · Gea A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

18°CDrizzle

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 83%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final

Budkov Kjaer N.[7]

Barrios Vera T.

Faria J.

Zhang Z.

Harris B.

Gea A.

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C. O'Connell

Clarke J.

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Bonzi B.

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