Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski — Poznan Round of 16
GBR
Kasnikowski M.
Maks Kasnikowski faces Jan Choinski in the Poznan round of 16 on clay. Jan Choinski holds the paper edge — ranked #105, a roughly 200-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Choinski J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jan Choinski has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 53 vs 12).
- Freshness: Maks Kasnikowski comes in with 7 days of rest and 50 games in 14d, vs Jan Choinski's 6 and 76.
- Last match: Jan Choinski handed Pedro Boscardin Dias a second-set bagel in a 7–5 6–0 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKasnikowski M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.