Daniel Elahi Galan vs Luca Van Assche — Parma Round of 16
Galan D.
Daniel Elahi Galan faces Luca Van Assche in the Parma round of 16 on clay. Luca Van Assche is the paper favourite — ranked #98, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage — but Daniel Elahi Galan arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Luca Van Assche's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Van Assche L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniel Elahi Galan 133 games in 14 days, Luca Van Assche 72.
- Surface form: Daniel Elahi Galan 8 of 10, Luca Van Assche 3 of 10 on clay recently — Daniel Elahi Galan the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGalan D.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 91 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.