Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama — Figueira Da Foz Round of 32
Kulikova A.
Anastasia Kulikova faces Mai Hontama in the Figueira Da Foz round of 32 on hard. Mai Hontama is the paper favourite — ranked #216, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage — but Anastasia Kulikova arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on hard to Mai Hontama's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Hontama M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Anastasia Kulikova 85 games in 14 days, Mai Hontama 0.
- Surface form: Anastasia Kulikova 5 of 6, Mai Hontama 3 of 6 on hard recently — Anastasia Kulikova the sharper of late.
- Win streak: Anastasia Kulikova arrives on a 3-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadKulikova A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Hontama M.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.