Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren — Nottingham Round of 16
Safiullin R.
Roman Safiullin faces August Holmgren in the Nottingham round of 16 on grass. Roman Safiullin holds the paper edge — ranked #135. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Safiullin R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Roman Safiullin comes in with 6 days of rest and 109 games in 14d, vs August Holmgren's 1 and 145.
- Last match: Roman Safiullin dropped the opening set before beating Oliver Tarvet 4–6 6–3 6–2.
- Last match: August Holmgren edged Alastair Gray in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSafiullin R.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d) · Holmgren A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.