Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva — Poznan Round of 32
Erhard M.
Mathys Erhard faces Frederico Ferreira Silva in the Poznan round of 32 on clay. Frederico Ferreira Silva is the paper favourite — ranked #235, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage — but Mathys Erhard arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Frederico Ferreira Silva's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mathys Erhard comes in with 7 days of rest and 41 games in 14d, vs Frederico Ferreira Silva's 14 and 40.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Mathys Erhard rising, Frederico Ferreira Silva cooling.
- Last match: Mathys Erhard dropped the opening set before beating Norbert Gombos 3–6 7–6 6–3.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadErhard M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Ferreira Silva F.: 14 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.