Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski — Poznan Round of 32
GBR
Boscardin Dias P.
Pedro Boscardin Dias faces Jan Choinski in the Poznan round of 32 on clay. Jan Choinski holds the paper edge — ranked #105, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Choinski J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Jan Choinski's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Pedro Boscardin Dias's has cooled.
- Under pressure: Jan Choinski has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 53 vs Pedro Boscardin Dias's 31).
- Surface form: Pedro Boscardin Dias 4 of 10, Jan Choinski 8 of 10 on clay recently — Jan Choinski the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBoscardin Dias P.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.