Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter — Nottingham Round of 32

Nottingham · WTA · Round of 32

GBRWC

Harriet Dart

#160WTA

1620ELO

1552Grass ELO

29 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLLWLWLWW

—

Sets

Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

GBRWC

Katie Boulter

#73WTA

1816ELO

1734Grass ELO

29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWLWLW

Dart H.

Boulter K.

Harriet Dart faces Katie Boulter in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Katie Boulter holds the paper edge — ranked #73, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's quarter-final.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Dart H.20%

Boulter K.80%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Boulter K. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: Katie Boulter has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Harriet Dart's 56).
Head-to-head: Katie Boulter leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at Wimbledon 2024.
Fatigue load: Harriet Dart carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Dart H.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Boulter K.

7.4

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

2.7Grass Elo 1552

Surface ELO

7.3+182 Grass Elo edge

3.5Overall Elo 1620

ELO gap

6.5Overall Elo 1816

5.2Split 1–1 on grass

H2H

4.8Split 1–1 on grass

2.93 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.97 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Country comfort

6.9Won 82% in GB (22)

Context

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

Defending pts

7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Dart H.Cooling

Boulter K.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season

Dart H.Boulter K.

1st serve in·Even

56%

60%

1st serve points won·Even

66%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

47%

46%

Service points won·Even

58%

59%

Return points won·Even

47%

46%

Break points saved·Slight edge

49%

57%

Aces / match·Slight edge

1.6

2.7

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.7

4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Dart H.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Boulter K.

Boulter K.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Dart H.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Dart H.Boulter K.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Dart H.Boulter K.

Freshness·Clear edge

Dart H.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d) · Boulter K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 96 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

17°CPartly cloudy

Wind 2 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

1–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-07-01	Wimbledon	R64	grass	Harriet Dart	4-6 6-1 7-6(8)
2024-06-10	Nottingham	R32	grass	Katie Boulter	6-7(5) 6-4 7-5
2023-06-12	Nottingham	QF	grass	Katie Boulter	6-3 7-5