Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain — Royan Round of 32
Bailly G.
Gilles Arnaud Bailly faces Lucas Poullain in the Royan round of 32 on clay. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is the paper favourite — ranked #208, a roughly 270-point clay Elo advantage — but Lucas Poullain arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Gilles Arnaud Bailly's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Bailly G. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Gilles Arnaud Bailly comes in with 19 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Lucas Poullain's 6 and 32.
- Surface form: Gilles Arnaud Bailly 4 of 8, Lucas Poullain 5 of 8 on clay recently — Lucas Poullain the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadBailly G.: 19 days rest · Poullain L.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.