Bu Yunchaokete vs Otto Virtanen — Nottingham Round of 32
Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
#158ATP
1685ELO
1680Grass ELO
$135kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Bu Yunchaokete faces Otto Virtanen in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Bu Yunchaokete holds the paper edge — ranked #131.
Key context
- Win streak: Bu Yunchaokete arrives on a 8-match winning run.
- Fatigue load: Both played three three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
- Surface form: Bu Yunchaokete 5 of 5, Otto Virtanen 3 of 5 on grass recently — Bu Yunchaokete the sharper of late.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:21 UTCYunchaokete B.23%
Virtanen O.77%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Virtanen O. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
2.4Grass Elo 1469
Surface ELO7.6+211 Grass Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1653
ELO gap5.4Overall Elo 1685
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
8.78 of last 10 on grass
Surface form6.47 of last 10 on grass
10.08-match win streak
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
14°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 63%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form60%1st serve in60%
73%1st serve points won73%
60%2nd serve points won+8%52%
68%Service points won+3%65%
35%Return points won+2%37%
66%Break points saved+3%63%
6.1Aces / match+1.37.4
1.2Double faults / match+23.2
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.