Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami — Parma Round of 32
Parma · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
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Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
Ilia Simakin faces Jacopo Vasami in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Ilia Simakin is the paper favourite — ranked #301 — but Jacopo Vasami arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on clay to Ilia Simakin's 0.
Key context
- Surface form: Ilia Simakin 0 of 5, Jacopo Vasami 3 of 5 on clay recently — Jacopo Vasami the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Ilia Simakin carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCSimakin I.83%
Vasami J.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Simakin I. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1384
Surface ELO5.3+24 Clay Elo edge
6.8Overall Elo 1574
ELO gap3.2Overall Elo 1428
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
0.00 of last 5 on clay
Surface form6.57 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set countContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form62%1st serve in+2%60%
72%1st serve points won+1%71%
53%2nd serve points won+4%49%
65%Service points won+3%62%
38%Return points won+3%35%
69%Break points saved+4%65%
6.6Aces / match+15.6
2.7Double faults / match+0.73.4
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.