Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin — Nottingham Round of 32
Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
#135ATP
1766ELO
1618Grass ELO
$86kYTD
$4.2MCAREER
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWWWLLW
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:21 UTCTarvet O.27%
Safiullin R.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Safiullin R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
4.7Grass Elo 1595
Surface ELO5.3+24 Grass Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1526
ELO gap8.0Overall Elo 1766
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
7.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form2.73 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
14°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 63%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form60%1st serve in+5%65%
69%1st serve points won+2%71%
48%2nd serve points won+3%51%
61%Service points won+3%64%
40%Return points won+2%42%
57%Break points saved+4%61%
4.9Aces / match+1.13.8
2.9Double faults / match+0.32.6
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (17 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.