Enrico Dalla Valle vs Jakub PaulParma Qualifying Final

Parma · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#441ATP
1461ELO
1434Clay ELO
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWWLW
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
#535ATP
1389ELO
1348Clay ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLLWWL
Dalla Valle E.
vs
Paul J.

Enrico Dalla Valle faces Jakub Paul in the Parma qualifying final on clay. Enrico Dalla Valle holds the paper edge — ranked #441, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Dalla Valle E.70%
Paul J.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Dalla Valle E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+87 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1348
5.9Overall Elo 1460
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1389
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.6
2.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.0
0.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Dalla Valle E.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Paul J.

Paul J.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Dalla Valle E.

Serve advantage — Dalla Valle E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
30
21
Break points saved·Slight edge
52
61
Break points won·Clear edge
7
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
65
5
Tiebreaks·Dominant
52
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
55

Dalla Valle E.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 89 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.