Chloe Paquet vs Amarissa Kiara TothBrescia Qualifying Final

Brescia · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#325WTA
1462ELO
1431Clay ELO
31 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLLLWW
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
#376WTA
1468ELO
1456Clay ELO
23 yrs
Last 10
WLWWLWWLLL
Paquet C.
vs
Toth A.

Chloe Paquet faces Amarissa Kiara Toth in the Brescia qualifying final on clay. Chloe Paquet is the paper favourite — ranked #325 — but Amarissa Kiara Toth rides a 3-match win streak. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Paquet C.52%
Toth A.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1431
Surface ELO
5.3+25 Clay Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1462
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1468
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.95 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Paquet C.Stable
Toth A.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
54%
2nd serve points won·Even
41%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
51%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
52%
Break points saved·Even
52%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.7
0.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.8
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Paquet C.serving29% hold

wins 41% of points on serve vs Toth A.

Toth A.serving44% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Paquet C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
84

Paquet C.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.