Madison Keys vs Xiyu Wang — Berlin Round of 32

Berlin · WTA · Round of 32

USA

Madison Keys

#26WTA

1948ELO

1772Grass ELO

$657kYTD

$24MCAREER

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWWWWL

—

Sets

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

CHN

Xiyu Wang

#100WTA

1732ELO

1563Grass ELO

25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLWWLWWWWW

Madison Keys faces Xiyu Wang in the Berlin round of 32 on grass. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

Head-to-head: Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Eastbourne 2023.
Stage: Madison Keys defends last year's round of 32.
Fatigue load: Madison Keys carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Keys M.85%

Wang X.15%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Keys M.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Wang X.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

7.6+209 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.4Grass Elo 1563

6.9Overall Elo 1948

ELO gap

3.1Overall Elo 1732

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

5.96 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

3.94 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

1.15

SlowFast

Weather forecast

15°COvercast

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2023-06-26	Eastbourne	R16	grass	Madison Keys	6-2 7-6(3)

Statistics

Recent form

Keys M.Wang X.

65%1st serve in+11%76%

66%1st serve points won+4%62%

46%2nd serve points won+6%52%

59%Service points won59%

44%Return points won+10%54%

62%Break points saved62%

3.9Aces / match+3.40.5

3.5Double faults / match+2.11.4

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.