Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate — Nottingham Round of 32
Gray A.
Alastair Gray faces Tristan Schoolkate in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Tristan Schoolkate holds the paper edge — ranked #123, a roughly 190-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Schoolkate T. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Alastair Gray dropped just 2 games past James Watt.
- Fatigue load: Tristan Schoolkate carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadGray A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d) · Schoolkate T.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on Court 4 · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Tarvet O. v Safiullin R.
- 2Gray A. v Schoolkate T.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.