Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley — Nottingham Round of 32

Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

AUS

Dane Sweeny

#132ATP

1537ELO

1412Grass ELO

$212kYTD

$816kCAREER

25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLLLLLW

—

Sets

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

GBR

Jacob Fearnley

#145ATP

1625ELO

1582Grass ELO

$214kYTD

$1.7MCAREER

24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLLLLWW

Dane Sweeny faces Jacob Fearnley in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Dane Sweeny is the paper favourite — ranked #132, leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Jacob Fearnley arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last grass matches to Dane Sweeny's 3.

Key context

Fatigue load: Jacob Fearnley carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Head-to-head: Dane Sweeny leads the head-to-head 1–0, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Brisbane 2026.
Surface form: Dane Sweeny 3 of 4, Jacob Fearnley 4 of 4 on grass recently — Jacob Fearnley the sharper of late.
Win streak: Jacob Fearnley arrives on a 4-match winning run.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:21 UTC

Sweeny D.23%

Fearnley J.77%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sweeny D.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Fearnley J.

7.2

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

2.9Grass Elo 1412

Surface ELO

7.1+169 Grass Elo edge

3.9Overall Elo 1537

ELO gap

6.1Overall Elo 1625

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

3.73 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.66 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

14°CClear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-01-04	Brisbane	Q1	hard	Dane Sweeny	6-1 7-6(4)

Statistics

Recent form

Sweeny D.Fearnley J.

63%1st serve in63%

66%1st serve points won+1%67%

51%2nd serve points won+6%45%

60%Service points won+1%59%

41%Return points won+3%38%

62%Break points saved+9%53%

3Aces / match+2.25.2

3.7Double faults / match+1.95.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.