Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei — Figueira Da Foz

Figueira Da Foz · CHALLENGER
POL
Martyna Kubka
#243WTA
1562ELO
1529Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWWLW
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
hard
BLR
Aliona Falei
#238WTA
1541ELO
1548Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
LLWLLLWWLW
Kubka M.
vs
Falei A.

Martyna Kubka faces Aliona Falei in the Figueira Da Foz match on hard. Aliona Falei is the paper favourite — ranked #238, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Martyna Kubka arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on hard to Aliona Falei's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC
Kubka M.57%
Falei A.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kubka M.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Falei A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1529
Surface ELO
5.2+19 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1562
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1541
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0Last match 1h23m
Prev. match
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kubka M.Rising
Falei A.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Kubka M.Falei A.
1st serve in·Even
69%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
49%
Break points saved·Even
56%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kubka M.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Falei A.

Falei A.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Kubka M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.